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As most of you know, we sponsored Steve Smith (NYG) to get to the 2010 NFL Pro Bowl. We had a fantasy football game promotion all set around it where you could win free fantasy football promotional items like footballs autographed by Steve Smith. Well, Steve didn’t get automatically voted in. Larry Fitzgerald and DeSean Jackson got the starting nods with Miles Austin and Sidney Rice as reserves. Larry Fitz won’t be able to play so Steve Smith is in. Its pretty darn good to be considered the top 5 in the NFL at your position. All of these guys are great and Steve is a stud NFL wide receiver AND fantasy football wide receiver to boot.

Congrats Steve! Wishing you much success at the Pro Bowl and in the years to come.

Ryan – Fantazzle Prez

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If you missed the NFC NFL Football Predictions, take a look. This post is for the AFC Conference. I’ll try to stick with things that are not apparent and you haven’t heard over and over again. I hope it will provide you all with additional insight, albeit a little late, but it should be a good read and we’ll take a look at the end of the year and see how accurate the predictions were.

NOTE – All of the below was predicted prior to Week 1 and no results from Week 1 were used to create the predictions.

AFC East

New England was 11-5 w/out Tom Brady last year. He’s back this year. No reason to believe the Pats don’t win the division this year.

The Miami Dolphins are going to be very disappointing this year. Last year was as overachieving as you can get. Not only is the Wild Cat one year old, but there is no way Miami repeats their +/- turnover ratio. Miami got 30 INT/Fumble recoveries and gave up the ball 13 times for a +17. If you don’t know that is REALLL good. I give credit to Miami for accomplishing this, but I also think it’s going to even out this year. In addition, 7 out of 11 wins last year were by a TD or less. Throw that on top of going from one of the easiest schedule in 2008 to one of the hardest, and the Dolphins are in for a rude awakening.

The New York Jets are an intriguing team and I see them making some waves in 2009. Rex Ryan and the ex-Ravens he brought with him are going to really upgrade the defense. Put that next to one of the best offensive lines and running games in 2008 and you have the makings of a playoff team. Mark Sanchez will be the wild card, but we’re looking at a Baltimore type team and they have never needed a QB. The Jets will compete for a wild card spot and be a tough team to beat in 2009.

I don’t see the Buffalo Bills doing too much this year. I don’t think they will stink, but they won’t be a contender. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills finish above the Dolphins.

AFC East Division Winner – New England Patriots

1. New England Patriots

2. New York Jets

3. Miami Dolphins

4. Buffalo Bills

Fantasy Football Impact

• I would keep an eye on Joey Galloway. We all talk about handcuffing your RBs, but never WRs. It doesn’t work the same way, but I don’t think there is a bigger ‘handcuff’ WR in the league than Galloway.
• I loved Thomas Jones last year. I’m sure he was a big help with the award Fantazzle won last year as the top fantasy football player ranking site. Fantazzle had him in the top 10 (he finished 5th) where he was mostly being ranked around ~20th. This year, I’m not real high on T Jones. Leon Washington has much more potential.

AFC North

You got two really good teams and you got two really bad teams. Ok, Cincy won’t be that bad, but they aren’t going to be relevant come December when everyone is talking about wild card spots. Cincy will be improved with Carson Palmer back and a defense that didn’t look half bad at times last year, but they are irrelevant with the top dawgs in the division (dawgs will be my closest reference to Cleveland).

DISCLAIMER!!!! I am a Ravens fan. I feel I’m impartial, but maybe that is impartial (whoa…thats deep!).

The Steelers return all but two guys from last year. So, easy repeat right? I don’t think so. In my NFC prediction post, I talked about how some teams did not address their main concerns. The Steelers are one of those teams. Their biggest weakness (and maybe their only weakness) is their offensive line. So during the off season they get a 3rd round Guard and a 7th round Center to address their weakness. Man…talk about rolling the dice. Their rushing attack will not improve and how is Big Ben going to stay healthy? I’m rolling the dice as well and saying that Big Ben goes down and so do the Steelers.

So that leaves the Ravens as the 2009 AFC North division winner. Its hard to see the Ravens not being better than the 11-5 record of last year. One year of experience under Flacco’s belt along with a young and improving O line. Sure they lost Rex Ryan and Bart Scott among a couple of defensive guys, but everyone needs to understand this happens every couple of years in Baltimore. Marvin Lewis and Mike Nolan most notably. Same thing at linebacker. The Ravens D won’t miss a beat.

AFC North Division Winners – Baltimore Ravens

1. Baltimore Ravens

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild card)

3. Cincinnati Bengals

4. Cleveland Browns

Fantasy Football Impact

• Ray Rice is the RB you want in Baltimore. Le’Ron McClain will not be a fantasy factor this year since he’ll be put back into his fullback role. McGahee is worth owning if you have a roster spot, but unless things change he won’t be useful in fantasy leagues.
• Willie Parker won’t make it through the whole year given the O line issues and he’s fragile already. Mendenhall is a must have handcuff and if you can snatch him before Fast Willie owners, you da man.
• Same goes for Jamal Lewis. He is less of an injury concern, but I can see James Davis jumping in as the #1 half way through the year. From what I understand, Jerome Harrison will not be the primary and he will only be used as a third down back. Try to stash him if you can.
• Chad Ochocinco is underrated this year. With Carson back, there is no reason that 85 won’t return as a fantasy force.

AFC South

Like the NFC South, this is a tough division to call (its pretty funny how the AFC and NFC divisions mirror each other except for the East). Any one of these teams could win the division.

The Houston Texans are always a trendy pick. I like them, but they are in the wrong division. Houston will continue to hover around a .500 mark.

The Jacksonville Jags had a major fall off last year. A lot of it was due to injuries to the O and D line. They should improve with the guys back, but I doubt they’ll be competing for a playoff spot.

Tennessee had the best regular season record in 2008 and then exited early after a playoff loss to Baltimore. They blew a major chance last year because all the key pieces were in place. This year they’ll have a tougher go at it with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. He is a game changer. He is one of those guys that, when healthy and more importantly motivated, can single handedly stop a team’s rushing attack and put pressure on the passing game. He’ll be missed in Tennessee.

Indy is the clear favorite by most prognosticators for 2009. I’m not one of them. While I see Haynesworth making the Titans a weaker team, I still see them as being the AFC South winner. Indy has too many concerns on defense. It looks like Bob Sanders is going to miss an extended amount of time and that will hurt the Colts in an area that it can’t afford to have issues with. I’m also worried about the #2 WR in Indy. Anthony Gonzalez will not be what Reggie Wayne was 2 years ago. The Colts offense will still be stellar, but it will be less explosive without a star #2.

AFC South Division Winner – Tennessee Titans

1. Tennessee Titans

2. Indianapolis Colts (Wild card)

3. Houston Texans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Impact

• Anthony Gonzalez will be a high end #3 WR, not a #2. Any #2 in Indy will be fantasy relevant, but watching Gonzalez last year, he didn’t look like he had the skills that will make him a fantasy star. Don’t expect him to play like Reggie Wayne did several years ago.
• Chris Johnson is not only a top fantasy running back, but also one of the less riskier picks in 2009. Its hard to imagine CJ having a bad year given the Titans game plan. He also has no NFL injury concerns so I like him as a reliable pick over more riskier picks like Steven Jackson or LT.
• In PPR leagues, Maurice Jones Drew is the #1 fantasy running back.
• Matt Schaub is the best fantasy football quarterback backup in the league. He’s really hard to trust as your #1 fantasy QB, but he’s a helluva backup. That way you don’t have to depend on him and if he stays healthy he could challenge your #1 for weekly starts.

AFC West

I’d be real surprised if this is not a one horse race. Its really hard to envision any team, but the San Diego Chargers to compete for the division.

The Denver Broncos are a mess. I can’t stress that enough and I don’t think I have to mention it. We all hear the stories every day.

The Kansas City Chiefs are right behind the Broncos. They just don’t have the talent.

The Oakland Raiders? Sorry to keep repeating myself, but see KC and Denver. I do however see Oakland improving. They have one of the best pass D’s in the league already. Its really a shame that they crapped the bed in the draft. If they could have improved their run D, they would have a really intriguing team and the key elements in place for a run in a weak division. Why? Because we all know that a solid D and solid run game (which they have) are the most successful strategies for a playoff run.

The Chargers win by default. San Diego seems to always underperform. Every year for the past ~5, they are Super Bowl picks. And every year they find ways to lose games. They barely made the playoffs last year so I don’t have a lot of faith in San Diego. I will say this, injuries played a large part of their issues last year. Merriman was out and Cromartie was absolutely horrible last year, but I guess that was because of an injury (well, why the heck did they let him play then? they really didnt have a better option?). They are both healthy this year and top draft pick, Larry English, will make them even better.

AFC West Division Winner – San Diego Chargers

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Oakland Raiders

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Denver Broncos

Fantasy Football Impact

• The San Diego Chargers Defense/Special Team was a major disappointment last year. This year, the Chargers will return to the top of D/ST with the return of Merriman and Cromartie at 100%.
• This is not really a fantasy football player for your team, but a word of advice. The Raiders CB, Nnamdi Asomugha, is the best cornerback in the NFL. Keep that in mind when your #1 WR plays against the Raiders. I’m benching just about anybody. I’m also looking at the #2 WR and starting him.
• Dwayne Bowe is a clear Tier 2 WR. Some people are worried about Bowe being a major fantasy WR. Don’t. Him along with Roddy White will prove this year that they are top #1 WRs for any fantasy team.
• Without Jay Cutler, Tony Scheffler is no longer a fantasy starter. Scheffler was becoming a TE start last year, but he won’t be this year with his best bud Cutler traded to the Bears.
• Zach Miller is an enigma for me. Last year he was the ~10th best fantasy TE, but the 6th best in yards. He only had 1 TD. Is this an issue with the Raiders offense (and red zone strategy) or was it happenstance that could be corrected this year? I don’t feel confident answering this, but I would definitely keep my eye on Z Miller and put him on your bench if you can spare a spot. I would not trust him as a weekly start yet.

AFC Conference Championship – Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

AFC Champion – Baltimore Ravens

Super Bowl Matchup – Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings

Super Bowl Champion – Minnesota Vikings

(Disclaimer – As mentioned above, I’m a Ravens fan. So am I being a homer? Its possible, but I believe they have the team this year that will return them to the Super Bowl.)

I wish you all the best for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season!

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Ok, its late.  This was all analyzed before last Sunday, but I guess there’s no reason for you to take my word for it. In any case, here it is. Give it a glance over and I’ll recap how accurate it was at the end of the season.

In this post, I’m going to shy away a bit from fantasy football and make some predictions for NFL football in general.  Don’t get me wrong, football predictions are VERY relevant to fantasy football. More than I believe people realize. When I do my research before the season and during the season, I spend a lot of time getting my thoughts together for teams first and then fantasy football. I think this is the best way to go about it and I credit it for Fantazzle being the top fantasy football ranking site in 2008.

So here goes for the 2009 NFL football season.

NFC East

Take your pick. I believe putting time into research and analysis can really give you insight to make justified predictions. I also believe there are instances where it doesn’t matter how much time you put into it or what computer algorithm you build, its just not gonna help. The NFC East is a perfect example of this. Hell, I even give the Redskins a shot at the division (Haynesworth is not a game changer, he’s a team changer). Lucky bounces and MOST IMPORTANTLY injuries will determine the winner. Its going to be so close that a key injury is even more important to the teams in this division than any other division. Brandon Jacobs goes down, NYG has got major issues with questions already at WR and no mas Derrick Ward. Donovan McNabb goes down (whoops! like I said I had this written before Week1), Philly has to depend on Kolb or Vick. And so forth.

I’m going with the Dallas Cowboys to win the division. They have had their fair share of key injuries the past year, but most of them were not recurring type issues that the aforementioned have. Plus, they got that new stadium and the pressure is off of them last year. Super Bowl contenders a year ago haven’t been mentioned at all this year and besides the TO loss (which makes them better in my opinion), they aren’t that different of a team.

NFC East Division Winner – Dallas Cowboys

1. Dallas Cowboys

2. New York Giants (Wild Card)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (Wild Card)

4. Washington Redskins

NFC East Fantasy Impact

• Tony Romo slipped wayyyyy too low in rankings. He was a complete steal this year as a Tier 2 QB that was drafted like a Tier 3.
• I love the Redskins Defense/Special Teams as a great team to have for a Bye week replacement, situational matchups, and upside to be a weekly start if Haynesworth has the impact I believe he will.
• The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles WRs are not very appealing. None of them, including DeSean Jackson. The reason being is that in Philly they have strong talent everywhere and that will spread the ball too much. In New York, the same thing will happen and no one knows for certain who will step up. I think it will create a very sporadic situation each week. DeSean Jackson wasn’t extremely consistent week to week last year and improved talent all around him may cause more of this (if your team award punt return TDs for players, it makes him more attractive). In New York, I see the ball being spread as well and that will cause a lot of week to week inconsistency for the WRs. 2pts one week and 15pts the next. It will be a guessing game. IF someone does step up, congrats for guessing right (I hope its Steve Smith, I got him in a few leagues, but full disclosure, it was a complete guess when I clicked his name over Hixon).

NFC North

I found this pick pretty easy. Minnesota Vikings. I don’t see a strong arguement for any other team.

The Chicago Bears which is known for their defense is not as strong as public perception. Don’t get me wrong, they are good, but apologies to Bears fans, I think they are overrated. They can get beat pretty easily through the air. Cutler will make it exciting for this team though. Just as the Bears D is overrated, the Bears O is being overlooked and is underrated.

Detroit. There, I mentioned them.

Green Bay has talent and they won’t do bad. I doubt they’ll fall apart like they did last year and they will compete for a wild card spot. The Packers big weakness last year was their run D which they focused on in the off season and it should be much improved. Their pass D is one of the best in the game at making plays.

All of that being said, this is finally the year for Minnesota. They will win the division and they will be a Super Bowl contender. Their run D is Top 3 in the league and the Williams court ruling was major for them. They also got EJ Henderson back which I think has been overlooked. A strong team already, his return will make them elite. Their pass D has always been an issue, but a part of that is because you can’t run against them so its hard to figure out how bad, average or good they are. On offense, well their O line and Adrian Peterson are the best in the game. The addition of Favre is the wild card. If they start out well, especially Favre, the locker room will forget about their individual opinions on how everything was handled. I’m not sure it was the right decision, but I also think it will not be as big a factor as the media has portrayed. The Vikings will win their division and have a shot at making and winning the 2009-2010 Super Bowl.

NFC North Division Winner – Minnesota Vikings

1. Minnesota Vikings

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Chicago Bears

4. Detroit Lions

NFC North Fantasy Impact

• Greg Olsen is going to have a big year. There aren’t many options for Cutler at WR, he has been reported to have a Romo/Witten off the field relationship with Olsen (just like he did with Scheffler in Denver), and Olsen is a great talent. I got him as a top 5 TE this year.
• I think Aaron Rodgers is good, but I think he is overrated. I haven’t seen one ranking this year with him lower than a top QB. I think he could be, but I’m not as confident as everyone else is with his ranking. Is he that good? I want to see another year before I crown him an elite fantasy football quarterback.
• Just like the Redskins Defense/Special Teams, I’m liking the GB Def/ST in the same role. A great Bye week and situational replacement with the upside of being an every week start.
• Calvin Johnson is good. If you have ever seen him play and his build, he is a picturesque WR. Detroit will be playing from behind every week and that always bode well for WRs. Hopefully Stafford will be good enough in his rookie year to get him the ball.
• I can’t provide any insight on the Vikings that you don’t already know. AP is the undisputed #1 (unless you play in a PPR league) and their Def/ST makes your life easy each week as a must start.

NFC South

This is a pretty hard division to predict. Besides Tampa Bay, any of these teams could win the division. Because it is such a close contest, I made my deciding factor on the last place to first place pattern that has been incredibly consistent for six years. Six years!!!! Thats unbelievable. Ok, last year the pattern didn’t exactly continue. The Atlanta Falcons were 1 second away from the trend, but Carolina converted a FG to win the game. The Falcons did receive a wildcard spot so close enough for me.

Besides I really like the Saints. Not sure if anything needs to be said about their offense. Their defense is the question and I believe it will be much better this year. Has anyone else noticed that there were a lot of teams this offseason where you shake your head and don’t understand why they didn’t address their key team problems? The Ravens didn’t draft or acquire a WR (besides Kelley Washington…), the Broncos drafted a RB in the first round, the Raiders spent their first pick on a questionable WR choice, etc. Some teams did very well focusing on their deficiencies and the Saints were one of them. Darren Sharper will prove to be one of the best off season acquisitions in 2009. Not just for his talent, but for the experience and leadership he can bring to a young secondary. Bringing in Gregg Williams as the D Coordinator will prove to be huge. Jabari Greer and Paul Spicer were brought in. And to cap off the brilliant off season moves, the Saints spent 3 of their 4 draft picks (yes, they only had 4 picks) on defensive players that should make an immediate impact. Hats off to the Saints and their team management for improving their team and showing a true commitment to win. It will pay off for them as the New Orleans Saints win the NFC South division.

Tampa Bay will be bad. Carolina will be competitive and should compete for a wildcard spot behind their strong running game. The Falcons will disappoint. They have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year and I believe they weren’t as good as their record was last year. They are a good team and they should be strong this year and future years, but I feel that everything went their way in 2008 and that will be tough to repeat.

NFC South Division Winner – New Orleans Saints

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Carolina Panthers

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Football Impact

• Marques Colston will return to former glory after a bad 2008. He’s good and is on the perfect team to put up incredible fantasy stats. (Side Note – after watching Week 1, I’m a bit worried about this prediction. Sure its only one week, but the amount they spread the ball worries me. I’m sticking with the prediction, but I’m concerned that the Saints are turning into a ‘wide receiver by committee’ team that will make it hard for fantasy owners each week when deciding or not to start Colston, Henderson, Moore and even Meachem.)
• Michael Clayton has some real potential to become fantasy relevant again. If Antonio Bryant is slowed from off season surgery, TB will need someone to throw to and Clayton is the obvious candidate. He’ll put up Joey Galloway type numbers which will make him a low end #2 WR.
• I’m staying away from Tony Gonzalez. I really think the situation is too unpredictable for him. He could be anywhere from the #1 TE in fantasy football to the 15th best. Too risky for me.
• DeAngelo Williams is a VERY risky top 5 RB. I think he’ll finish more at the bottom of the top 10. His production came in the second half and was because of several monster games. Take away those monster games and he’s not even on radars this year. Plus out of all the RBs being tossed around as fantasy’s best, he is the only one in a split carry situation. I don’t see how he can be regarded as one of the top 5 when he only carries the ball 60% of the time.

NFC West

This is a tricky division. I think its pretty well known that the NFC and AFC West are the worst divisions in football. While the AFC West has a standout team (San Diego), the NFC West really doesn’t.

Lets get the obvious out of the way. The St. Louis Rams will not be good. They’ll be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Ok, well thats about it for the obvious. You may think that San Fran would be listed here as well. I don’t think so. I think they have a real shot at winning the division. I believe Mike Singletary has got them playing inspired football and they have the makings of a competitive team. I don’t believe they would have much division hopes if they were in a non West division, but they are so they do. Patrick Willis is one of the best LBs in the game. The rest of the defense is getting better and Singletary is a great coach to get the most out of them. The offense has a great run offense, but has a shaky passing offense. I think Shaun Hill will be ok back there and between Isaac Bruce, Josh Morgan, Jason Hill and Brandon Jones they’ll be ok at WR as well. The 49ers will surprise people this year….but they will not win the division (hope that wasn’t a tease).

The Cardinals? I can’t remember a team being talked about less the year after a Super Bowl appearance (maybe the ‘04 Raiders?). That below the radar situation usually motivates a team and can take their opponents by surprise. OR it could mean they just aren’t very good and there is something to the Super Bowl curse thing. I’m going with the latter. Since 2000, the losing team in the Super Bowl has only had a winning record 6 out of 8 times (and one of those was NE last year who didn’t make the playoffs). That is pretty eye opening. Not only did they not return to the playoffs, but had LOSING RECORDS!!! I got AZ finishing 3rd in the division.

So, that leaves the Seattle Seahawks who I believe will easily win the NFC West. In fact the Seahawks are my choice for the biggest surprise team in 2009. Maybe I’m reading the wrong articles, but no one sees Seattle as a contender this year. Sure, there are selections for them to win the NFC West, but there is little respect. I guess that’s because they were so bad last year. But everyone should know that the NFL can change so much year to year that this is really irrelevant. Last year about this time, Hasselback was out, the losses at the O line were major, the defense was projected to be one of the worst, O line and key D injuries, and the injury circus at WR. It was Twilight Zone’sque. Let me recap real quick because it was nothing like I have ever seen in the NFL. Bobby Engram and Obamanu down during training camp. Deion Branch was out from the prior season. Nate Burleson tore ligaments in Week 1. Logan Payne done in Week 2. And then Koren Robinson goes down after he is signed. Most teams only have ~6 WRs on their 53 man roster. This is 6 right here. It was comical and freaky. Well, a year has changed a lot. Hasselback is back, TJ Housh was signed, Burleson and Branch are healthy (I think Branch is healthy….that guy is the most injured person in professional football. Agree? Disagree?), and the Seahawks defense looks better with injury returns and Aaron Curry drafted in the first round. Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West Division.

NFC West Division Winner – Seattle Seahawks

1. Seattle Seahawks

2. San Fran 49ers

3. Arizona Cardinals

4. St Louis Rams

Fantasy Football Impact

• Why the heck is everyone so high on Steven Jackson? Its really hard for me to trust him as a top 5 RB. Sure if everything goes according to plan, then he’ll be pretty good, but thats hard to count on. The team is bad…real bad. I’m not drafting a guy that is getting top 5 attention with so many question marks.
• Laurent Robinson will be fantasy relevant. He is looking like the #1 WR in St. Louis. Avery is a much smaller receiver and his injury will set him back. I see Robinson being a candidate to be a #3 WR, flex starter, or at a minimum a Bye week replacement.
• Vernon Davis is worth a roster spot if you can spare one. If you like to carry two TEs on your team, chances are the second one is not a sure thing. V Davis has some upside and he could finally put up the numbers everyone has expected from him. Singletary seems to have a personal liking to pressing this guy. You can tell from the banishment last year and promoting Davis to a team captain this year. Singletary wouldn’t take the time to do that if he didn’t believe in Vernon’s potential. He’s got a lot of upside and could be a nice surprise.
• Not much to say about Arizona that is already published about them. No particular insight with that team.
• I love Nate Burleson this year. I have always thought he was a talented receiver and he’s in a good spot to become a very consistent #2 fantasy football wide receiver. He could put up bigger numbers than TJ.
• I love John Carlson just as much. Hasselback has always loved to throw to his TEs and Carlson is the best one he has ever had.
• Julius Jones is one of the most underrated players in fantasy football. I ranked Julius Jones 16th overall for running backs and have caught some flak about that. We’ll see. He’s in a great spot to be a big time surprise.

NFC Conference Championship - Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

NFC Champion - Minnesota Vikings

AFC Conference Predictions coming next.

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