If you missed the NFC NFL Football Predictions, take a look. This post is for the AFC Conference. I’ll try to stick with things that are not apparent and you haven’t heard over and over again. I hope it will provide you all with additional insight, albeit a little late, but it should be a good read and we’ll take a look at the end of the year and see how accurate the predictions were.

NOTE – All of the below was predicted prior to Week 1 and no results from Week 1 were used to create the predictions.

AFC East

New England was 11-5 w/out Tom Brady last year. He’s back this year. No reason to believe the Pats don’t win the division this year.

The Miami Dolphins are going to be very disappointing this year. Last year was as overachieving as you can get. Not only is the Wild Cat one year old, but there is no way Miami repeats their +/- turnover ratio. Miami got 30 INT/Fumble recoveries and gave up the ball 13 times for a +17. If you don’t know that is REALLL good. I give credit to Miami for accomplishing this, but I also think it’s going to even out this year. In addition, 7 out of 11 wins last year were by a TD or less. Throw that on top of going from one of the easiest schedule in 2008 to one of the hardest, and the Dolphins are in for a rude awakening.

The New York Jets are an intriguing team and I see them making some waves in 2009. Rex Ryan and the ex-Ravens he brought with him are going to really upgrade the defense. Put that next to one of the best offensive lines and running games in 2008 and you have the makings of a playoff team. Mark Sanchez will be the wild card, but we’re looking at a Baltimore type team and they have never needed a QB. The Jets will compete for a wild card spot and be a tough team to beat in 2009.

I don’t see the Buffalo Bills doing too much this year. I don’t think they will stink, but they won’t be a contender. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills finish above the Dolphins.

AFC East Division Winner – New England Patriots

1. New England Patriots

2. New York Jets

3. Miami Dolphins

4. Buffalo Bills

Fantasy Football Impact

• I would keep an eye on Joey Galloway. We all talk about handcuffing your RBs, but never WRs. It doesn’t work the same way, but I don’t think there is a bigger ‘handcuff’ WR in the league than Galloway.
• I loved Thomas Jones last year. I’m sure he was a big help with the award Fantazzle won last year as the top fantasy football player ranking site. Fantazzle had him in the top 10 (he finished 5th) where he was mostly being ranked around ~20th. This year, I’m not real high on T Jones. Leon Washington has much more potential.

AFC North

You got two really good teams and you got two really bad teams. Ok, Cincy won’t be that bad, but they aren’t going to be relevant come December when everyone is talking about wild card spots. Cincy will be improved with Carson Palmer back and a defense that didn’t look half bad at times last year, but they are irrelevant with the top dawgs in the division (dawgs will be my closest reference to Cleveland).

DISCLAIMER!!!! I am a Ravens fan. I feel I’m impartial, but maybe that is impartial (whoa…thats deep!).

The Steelers return all but two guys from last year. So, easy repeat right? I don’t think so. In my NFC prediction post, I talked about how some teams did not address their main concerns. The Steelers are one of those teams. Their biggest weakness (and maybe their only weakness) is their offensive line. So during the off season they get a 3rd round Guard and a 7th round Center to address their weakness. Man…talk about rolling the dice. Their rushing attack will not improve and how is Big Ben going to stay healthy? I’m rolling the dice as well and saying that Big Ben goes down and so do the Steelers.

So that leaves the Ravens as the 2009 AFC North division winner. Its hard to see the Ravens not being better than the 11-5 record of last year. One year of experience under Flacco’s belt along with a young and improving O line. Sure they lost Rex Ryan and Bart Scott among a couple of defensive guys, but everyone needs to understand this happens every couple of years in Baltimore. Marvin Lewis and Mike Nolan most notably. Same thing at linebacker. The Ravens D won’t miss a beat.

AFC North Division Winners – Baltimore Ravens

1. Baltimore Ravens

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild card)

3. Cincinnati Bengals

4. Cleveland Browns

Fantasy Football Impact

• Ray Rice is the RB you want in Baltimore. Le’Ron McClain will not be a fantasy factor this year since he’ll be put back into his fullback role. McGahee is worth owning if you have a roster spot, but unless things change he won’t be useful in fantasy leagues.
• Willie Parker won’t make it through the whole year given the O line issues and he’s fragile already. Mendenhall is a must have handcuff and if you can snatch him before Fast Willie owners, you da man.
• Same goes for Jamal Lewis. He is less of an injury concern, but I can see James Davis jumping in as the #1 half way through the year. From what I understand, Jerome Harrison will not be the primary and he will only be used as a third down back. Try to stash him if you can.
• Chad Ochocinco is underrated this year. With Carson back, there is no reason that 85 won’t return as a fantasy force.

AFC South

Like the NFC South, this is a tough division to call (its pretty funny how the AFC and NFC divisions mirror each other except for the East). Any one of these teams could win the division.

The Houston Texans are always a trendy pick. I like them, but they are in the wrong division. Houston will continue to hover around a .500 mark.

The Jacksonville Jags had a major fall off last year. A lot of it was due to injuries to the O and D line. They should improve with the guys back, but I doubt they’ll be competing for a playoff spot.

Tennessee had the best regular season record in 2008 and then exited early after a playoff loss to Baltimore. They blew a major chance last year because all the key pieces were in place. This year they’ll have a tougher go at it with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. He is a game changer. He is one of those guys that, when healthy and more importantly motivated, can single handedly stop a team’s rushing attack and put pressure on the passing game. He’ll be missed in Tennessee.

Indy is the clear favorite by most prognosticators for 2009. I’m not one of them. While I see Haynesworth making the Titans a weaker team, I still see them as being the AFC South winner. Indy has too many concerns on defense. It looks like Bob Sanders is going to miss an extended amount of time and that will hurt the Colts in an area that it can’t afford to have issues with. I’m also worried about the #2 WR in Indy. Anthony Gonzalez will not be what Reggie Wayne was 2 years ago. The Colts offense will still be stellar, but it will be less explosive without a star #2.

AFC South Division Winner – Tennessee Titans

1. Tennessee Titans

2. Indianapolis Colts (Wild card)

3. Houston Texans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Impact

• Anthony Gonzalez will be a high end #3 WR, not a #2. Any #2 in Indy will be fantasy relevant, but watching Gonzalez last year, he didn’t look like he had the skills that will make him a fantasy star. Don’t expect him to play like Reggie Wayne did several years ago.
• Chris Johnson is not only a top fantasy running back, but also one of the less riskier picks in 2009. Its hard to imagine CJ having a bad year given the Titans game plan. He also has no NFL injury concerns so I like him as a reliable pick over more riskier picks like Steven Jackson or LT.
• In PPR leagues, Maurice Jones Drew is the #1 fantasy running back.
• Matt Schaub is the best fantasy football quarterback backup in the league. He’s really hard to trust as your #1 fantasy QB, but he’s a helluva backup. That way you don’t have to depend on him and if he stays healthy he could challenge your #1 for weekly starts.

AFC West

I’d be real surprised if this is not a one horse race. Its really hard to envision any team, but the San Diego Chargers to compete for the division.

The Denver Broncos are a mess. I can’t stress that enough and I don’t think I have to mention it. We all hear the stories every day.

The Kansas City Chiefs are right behind the Broncos. They just don’t have the talent.

The Oakland Raiders? Sorry to keep repeating myself, but see KC and Denver. I do however see Oakland improving. They have one of the best pass D’s in the league already. Its really a shame that they crapped the bed in the draft. If they could have improved their run D, they would have a really intriguing team and the key elements in place for a run in a weak division. Why? Because we all know that a solid D and solid run game (which they have) are the most successful strategies for a playoff run.

The Chargers win by default. San Diego seems to always underperform. Every year for the past ~5, they are Super Bowl picks. And every year they find ways to lose games. They barely made the playoffs last year so I don’t have a lot of faith in San Diego. I will say this, injuries played a large part of their issues last year. Merriman was out and Cromartie was absolutely horrible last year, but I guess that was because of an injury (well, why the heck did they let him play then? they really didnt have a better option?). They are both healthy this year and top draft pick, Larry English, will make them even better.

AFC West Division Winner – San Diego Chargers

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Oakland Raiders

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Denver Broncos

Fantasy Football Impact

• The San Diego Chargers Defense/Special Team was a major disappointment last year. This year, the Chargers will return to the top of D/ST with the return of Merriman and Cromartie at 100%.
• This is not really a fantasy football player for your team, but a word of advice. The Raiders CB, Nnamdi Asomugha, is the best cornerback in the NFL. Keep that in mind when your #1 WR plays against the Raiders. I’m benching just about anybody. I’m also looking at the #2 WR and starting him.
• Dwayne Bowe is a clear Tier 2 WR. Some people are worried about Bowe being a major fantasy WR. Don’t. Him along with Roddy White will prove this year that they are top #1 WRs for any fantasy team.
• Without Jay Cutler, Tony Scheffler is no longer a fantasy starter. Scheffler was becoming a TE start last year, but he won’t be this year with his best bud Cutler traded to the Bears.
• Zach Miller is an enigma for me. Last year he was the ~10th best fantasy TE, but the 6th best in yards. He only had 1 TD. Is this an issue with the Raiders offense (and red zone strategy) or was it happenstance that could be corrected this year? I don’t feel confident answering this, but I would definitely keep my eye on Z Miller and put him on your bench if you can spare a spot. I would not trust him as a weekly start yet.

AFC Conference Championship – Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

AFC Champion – Baltimore Ravens

Super Bowl Matchup – Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings

Super Bowl Champion – Minnesota Vikings

(Disclaimer – As mentioned above, I’m a Ravens fan. So am I being a homer? Its possible, but I believe they have the team this year that will return them to the Super Bowl.)

I wish you all the best for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season!

Fantazzle Fantasy Football Games

www.fantazzle.com

Share on Facebook