Hi all,

Its been a little time since the last post. Sorry about that. We have been busy getting fantasy basketball and fantasy hockey ready. We will have fantasy basketball salary cap and fantasy hockey salary cap games available next week. We had fantasy basketball last year and the game was well received. Fantasy hockey will be in its first year and we will roll it out in salary cap format. Scoring and web pages will be up later this week. Stay tuned!

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Fantazzle Weekly Fantasy Sports Games each week looks to give fantasy football insight that is not obvious. We focus on players that are overlooked by most major fantasy football sites. If your looking for high level start/sit advice (start Drew Brees and Adrian Peterson, bench Marc Bulger and Michael Crabtree) then you will want to read a different article. If you want analysis on players that are under the radar and are question marks each week, then read on.

It’s also worth pointing out that while some of those fantasy football start/sit articles can be useful, they aren’t always relevant for traditional fantasy football….BUT they are for playing weekly fantasy football games (given I’m the prez of Fantazzle.com, I recommend that site . Heck if you got the option to bench Tom Brady (thats even if you own Brady in the first place) and use a solid QB with a dream matchup, then much props on your drafting skillz. But I gotta believe Brady is going to be started regardless of the matchup or what you read. The beauty of weekly fantasy football is you choose a new roster every week and you can put that matchup info to good use by winning cash prizes. Ok, thats my soap box moment. Its really a call to action for fantasy writers rather than a sales pitch. There is just so much more value in the start/sit type articles once weekly fantasy football starts to gain popularity. Playing the matchups in fantasy football is a really key factor, but your options are limited given the draft was before the season starts and Frank Gore plays the Vikings this week.

Note – This is start/sit advice, here is Fantazzle’s week 3 fantasy football pickup advice.

Eddie Royal (WR Den) START - Royal will come back to life this week. Everyone is worried about him and rightly so. I believe this could be the week against Oakland. Oak’s shutdown corner, Asomugha, should be matched up with Marshall (Marshall is an iffy start) making Eddie Royal a big part of the game plan. Bobby Wade as the #2 last week had a good week and I see the same for Royal which is about 90 yds and a possible TD. Start him this week and if he doesn’t produce – be very worried….

Steve Slaton (RB Hou) START – Your probably going to start this guy regardless (like I said, I don’t wanna be ‘that guy’ and write about guys you will be starting every week), but he’s another guy who is off to a bad start for 2009 fantasy football owners. This is the week he’ll bounce back and show you why he was picked in the 1st/2nd round in drafts. Last year, Slaton had 2 big games against the Jags going over 100 all purpose yards easily and scoring a total of 3 TDs. Look for Slaton to bounce back with over 100 yds and at least one TD.

Arizona Players START – (Warner, Fitz, and Boldin are must starts so no surprise there), but Hightower owners probably are not looking at him as a must start each week and Beanie Wells owners are definitely not. Start Hightower with no questions asked and Wells owners may want to give him a shot if your using a flex in a large league and your other options have bad matchups (for example, Cedric Benson against Pit D or Julius Jones against Chi D…its a risky call so flip a coin and/or read some more articles before deciding). If you watched the MNF game this past week, you saw that Indy’s D was on the field for 45 minutes. Thats 3 quarters…and an unreal effort by the Dolphins (and Peyton for pulling off the win). You gotta believe off a short week for another away game that the Colts D is going to be tired. Oh and start Rackers as well.

Jeremy Shockey (NO TE) START – Buffalo has given up nearly 100 yards the past two weeks to its opponents tight ends AND gave up a TD to both of them (Ben Watson and Kellen Winslow). Look for the trend to continue with Shockey. He’ll get around the same stat line 5/80/1.

Green Bay Packers D/ST START – Green Bay was a big underrated player in Fantazzle’s preseason fantasy football rankings. They already have 6 INTs this year and 1 TD scored (middle of the pack in sacks). They play the Rams this week who will be missing several of their O Line starters and have scored a total of 7 pts this year (added bonus for Points Allowed leaguers). This is about as no-brainer as you can get. Its possible that they are still available as free agents in your league.

St. Louis Rams players SIT - Your probably don’t have much choice with Steven Jackson so go ahead and start him. He won’t do too bad, but I doubt he’ll put up 1st round draft pick numbers. I liked Laurent Robinson preseason and I like him even more after seeing two games, but bench him this week. If for some reason, your starting Avery or Burton you have to bench them as well and hope you can pick up better guys on the waiver wire. Those guys are not very good fantasy options any week.

Jermichael Finley (GB TE) ~~~~ – well this is tough for two reasons: A) you probably have a more proven TE on your roster and B) Donald Lee is still in the mix and that will reduce Finley’s stats. So while Finley has a great matchup, you better be hurting with your other options if you start him. Its usually not a good idea to start a team that uses to pass catching tight ends. BUT the Rams have given up close to 100 yds a game for the past two games and a score. In addition, Jennings is a bit nicked up so the TE could be a bigger part of the game plan as they look to ‘rest’ him. Speaking of which, you may love Jennings vs. the Rams, but I wouldn’t expect a lot. It scares me that Jennings had 0 catches last week. Its possible his injury is going to hamper him for awhile. If GB was smart they should put him on the bench once they’re up by a TD. My recommendation here is if you have your eye on Finley for a future week to week TE start, you should pick him up before he makes waves this week and he becomes a hot pickup.

Donald Driver (GB WR) START – As stated above, I’m a little worried about Jennings. GB is playing against the Rams. I look for Donald Driver to play like a #1 WR and put up some nice numbers.

Brian Westbrook (Phi RB) ~~~ – I’m not suggesting benching WB. In fact if he plays he should have some nice numbers. Playing at home vs the KC Chiefs is a fantasy football dream matchup ESPECIALLY considering the fantasy points the Chiefs have given up to RBs in the last two games (McGahee had a TD and LJ had ~40 yds which is unusual for him). That said, if the Eagles were smart they would pull WB as quickly as possible. They should win this game handedly and they have a BYE Week next week which will give WB the time he needs to get ready for the thick of the season. Plus the Eagles should really see what they got with LeSean McCoy as the #1 RB. That way when WB misses games later in the season (and we all know he will), they’ll know how much they can depend on McCoy in their game plans. Man…I should be a NFL coach. This stuff is easy!

Braylon Edwards (Cle WR) START – I’m a little worried about the Quinn/Edwards comments about not being on the same page plus Edwards has been a dud thus far so this is a risky start. That said, Edwards has always had success against the Ravens (I should know, I’m a Ravens fan). A TD every other game and close to 100 yds each game for the past couple of years. Not to mention that the Ravens haven’t been so hot against the pass so far this season, they won’t be able to run against them, and Fabian Washington is questionable to play. This is another guy that if he doesn’t produce this weekend, be very worried about his fantasy future.

A couple of guys your going to start every week so no need to get in-depth about, but they looked prime for a big Sunday for Week 3:

• Matt Forte (Chi RB) – disappointing so far, but he’ll turn it around. Seattle was the team that gave up over 200 yds to Frank Gore last week.
• Santonio Holmes (Pit WR) – he has been a beast against Cincy for the past two years (over 100yds and 1 or more TDs almost every game).
• Jason Witten (Dal TE) – both TEs that Carolina has played against have scored TDs (Celek and Tony G) so Witten is looking good for a TD.
• Min D/ST – San Fran is at the top of the league for sacks allowed and Min is at the top of the league for sacks.
• Balt D/ST – they haven’t been all that sharp this year especially their pass D, but a shaky Quinn IN Balt is askin’ for trouble. Could we see Derek Alexander starting the 3rd quarter a la Donovan McNabb? It would be a horrible coaching call (just like Reid’s was…unless he did that to motivate McNabb which I doubt), but a real possibility.

So thats the fantasy football week 3 advice. I hope that it adds a little more than the ‘start AP this week or bench McNabb. There is definitely a place for that (even more so if you play weekly fantasy football games) and should be the start of any weekly fantasy football strategy, but its also pretty easy to make those recommendations. Fantazzle tries every week to give you that extra edge looking at the not so transparent analysis that will give you that slight edge you need to pull off a close win.

General Week 3 NFL Notes

Games of the week:

Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets – I’m fired up to watch this game! The Jets were one of my surprise teams this year in the NFL’s AFC division and so far that predict is looking good. I also had Ten as the AFC South winners so that is not, but give them a little slack. Games against the reigning Super Bowl champs (which went into overtime) and an always fierce division rival with Houston (its sometimes easy to forget that Ten used to be the Houston Oilers so that adds to the intensity). This is going to be a good one. I’m a little surprised that the Jets are favored in this game. I know the Jets are looking really good thus far, but even with the home field advantage I would say this is more like a pick’em. I expect the Titans to pull off the upset.

San Fran 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings - Another great game. 49ers is another team surprise team I picked in my NFL NFC division predictions. Plus I had the Vikings as this year’s Super Bowl champs. This is their first true test since they have played the Lions and Cleveland thus far, but a wins a win and we haven’t seen Brett Favre yet. We may need to with AP running up against one of the best linebackers in the game today (Patrick Willis) and a run D that has held both opponents thus far to less than 50 rushing yards. The Vikings are expected to win by 7 points according to Vegas, but I look for a much closer victory by the Vikings with a final score of 20-17 for Minnesota.

Other notables:

• Atlanta Falcons vs New England Patriots - I believe the Pats will win, but it will be interesting to see how close the game will be and if NE continues to be rusty and Atl continues to play at a high level (I predicted the Falcons to be disappointing this year).
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals – Should be an easy win for Pit right? Well, I think they’ll win, but I wouldn’t be amazed if there was an upset. Pit lost last week to the Bears and the Bengals beat GB in Lambeau. I expect this to be a close division game with Pit getting the victory by less than a TD: 23-20.
• Denver Broncos vs Oakland Raiders - Preseason, I was down on the Broncos and up on the Raiders. I haven’t changed this view. The season will right the 2-0 start by Denver. Denver is favored in the game so I guess I’m calling an upset with an Oakland win which will happen on Sunday. Denver will be limited in their passing game and Oakland should run all over Denver’s run D: 34-13 Oakland.
• Overreactions - Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel talks (last week it was Jay Cutler talks). For one, its been two weeks. For two, its Cle and KC. I mean, c’mon are they expecting to make the playoffs? These teams have to be realistic and realize that it doesn’t matter who they start, they are not going to be competing for a playoff spot come December (or October for that matter). Maybe its the press and not the teams starting the controversies. These teams have got to stick with their QBs so they can figure out if they are the guys for the future. Both teams look like they have invested in these two guys so unless things have changed, the best thing they can do is let them play 16 games so they know if they were right or wrong.
• Correctreactions – Ok, I invented a new word to stay in theme. The reaction to the New England Patriots and Tom Brady issues. I watched in entirety both of New England’s games this year. In both games (most especially the Jets games), the Pats were not the Pats. I think we’re looking at the exact same situation Peyton Manning was in last year to open the season. Remember Manning and the Colts looked really bad last year starting out 0-2 and going 4-4. It wasn’t until Week 9 with a win over the Pats (ironically enough) that the Colts got back into their groove. Even the games they did win were just as much luck as skill (if you can recall the win over the Vikings 18-15 win and the Frerotte debacle in Houston in the last 2 minutes). The major news outlets are calling this one right. The Pats will take some time to get back into rhythm and it will mean a lot of frustration much like this past weekend and close wins. Even more ironic is that the Pats play Indy in Week 10 which if history repeats itself will be right around the time that NE starts playing like NE.
• Underreactions – Yes, there has been a lot discussed about the Miami/Colts game and the 15 min time of possession that the Dolphins made the Colts work with. I’m just not sure if the ramifications are fully understood. Last year, Miami changed the league with the WildCat. Will they make another league changer with what they did on Monday or was it the perfect storm of a great and confusing rushing attack for Miami and a bad and undersized rushing D for the Colts? Or is this the most valuable game film to study in 2009? I think its a bit of both and that is BIG news. If over matched teams (you know who I’m talking ’bout Willis – Chiefs, Bucs, Rams, Browns, Lions) look to duplicate the feat, it could change the game. Obviously teams have tried to do this for years, but I still think there is a lot that can be learned. Miami and Tony Sparano may have done it again. As a fantasy sports games site, I really hope not. Not many other offenses will be able to still pull off a win and put up respectable fantasy points. It would be horrible for fantasy given how much fantasy stats would shrink.

Ryan Parr is the founder and CEO of Fantazzle Fantasy Sports Games. Weekly fantasy football games for cash prizes including free fantasy football.

Play fantasy football week to week at Fantazzle Fantasy Football. Games start on Sunday and cash prizes are awarded on Tuesday. No season long commitment. Use your fantasy football knowledge to win cash! Fantazzle is currently offering free fantasy football games with the chance to win cash prizes.

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Ryan Parr is the founder and CEO of Fantazzle Fantasy Sports Games. Weekly fantasy football games for cash prizes including free fantasy football.

So to reiterate what you hear from everyone about fantasy football. Don’t overreact. Don’t get rid of stars that have started slow. That said, you should start making moves to shore up your bench. In most leagues, you have a couple of spots that are iffy and if those fantasy guys haven’t produced thus far, you can make some add/drops. Guys like Chris Chambers, Le’Ron McClain, Edgerrin James, drop and pick up guys that have upside based on good stats. Guys like Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler, and TJ Housh, I wouldnt recommend moving. There are some that are borderline like L. Coles I would say if a good waiver wire opportunity presents itself, then I’d make a move, but I would be careful and make sure that the upside you get is worth it.

That said, here’s a rundown of some pickups I’m looking at.

I’ll quickly mention the guys that everyone is talking about: Mario Manningham, Johnny Knox, and Percy Harvin. If they are available and you have guys that aren’t producing and iffy to begin with, make the move now. There is no assurance they will continue to produce, but they have enough upside to pull the trigger with no regret.

Here are some guys that have (mostly) been talked about, both good and bad.

Laurent Robinson (WR) – he’s been a popular discussion topic and I recommend picking him up. I had him as a preseason pick based on his situation in St. Louis. I think he is the #1 WR and playing for a team that will be down all game. The O line is getting scary so we may be getting to the point that no WR is useful, but I recommend that he is picked up if you can spare a spot. He’s done well so far and he’s a big target and clearly the #1.

Pierre Garcon (WR) - he’s been talked about as well along with Austin Collie. He was given the #2 spot so he’s the man to get. Some are saying Collie has more upside, but I’m not buying it and he is the guy you want. I would go as far as dropping Anthony Gonzalez so you can win now. Who knows when Gonzalez will be back and if Garcon plays well, it will most likely make neither useful. Go with him for the short term upside you may get out of him.

Jordy Nelson (WR) – I’m not recommending you pick him up, but Greg Jennings injury and stat line from this previous week scares me a bit. If the injury bothers him and he misses time, Nelson will be a useful #3.

Pittsburgh RBs – there is clearly concern for Willie Parker, but I don’t know how this will play out. Its looking more and more like a 3 RB committee. I don’t think I would drop any of them (Parker, Moore, or Mendenhall), but I dont think they will be fantasy relevant soon or we at least won’t have a good take on it until a couple of weeks go by. Right now its not a good situation for owners because your wasting roster spots. If you can trade them and get anything of value, thats what I recommend. Otherwise, keep them on your bench. Even against Cincy this weekend, your options better be limited if your going to start Parker.

Jacoby Jones (WR) - I gotta believe that Kevin Walter will be back soon making Jones a non fantasy factor. Don’t pick him up and don’t drop Walter.

Devery Henderson (WR) - New Orleans offense is so explosive that it makes Devery a tough decision. If Lance Moore comes back soon, then I think Devery will not be startable. All signs point to Moore being back soon. That said, Moore’s status and the fact that a #3 in NO could be relevant, I would pick him up if you have a spot. Use him if Moore is ruled out.

Justin Gage (WR) – he’s the guy you want in Tennessee. Its hard to start any Titans WR, but if I do, I’m starting him. Britt looked good Week 1, but he won’t be a fantasy factor with Nate Washington’s return. Nate is #2 in Tennessee and given that offense doesn’t pass that often (well, they have but that won’t continue), I wouldn’t pick him up.

Michael Clayton (WR) - I recommended him last week and he was a huge disappointment. I see his potential with Bryant out, but I also saw that most passes went to Winslow and Stevens. If you have a spot, keep him or pick him up, but I recommend him now as a last resort. Man…this guy is my Newman! He’s continues to burn me. I never liked him and the moment I do, he disappoints big time.

Ted Ginn Jr (WR) - I don’t like him, but he was targeted a huge amount Monday night. I would find it really hard to start him since it could very easily be someone else on Miami’s team next week. I’m not picking him up because he won’t be consistent enough.

NYG WRs – No reason to own Hixon or Nicks. If Steve Smith or Manningham are available, they are definite priority pickups.

Earl Bennett (WR) – don’t drop him. Johnny Knox got the spotlight, but make sure he is the guy for a week or two before you drop Bennett. Whoever steps into that role is going to have a huge year so store them both if you can. I’m not going to recommend one over the other. It would just be a guess. I will say however that I like both of these guys more than Hester. Not sure I would drop Hester for them either, but they have much more upside.

Julian Adelman (WR) – In an earlier writeup I said there was only one standout handcuff in fantasy football for WRs (besides Breaston) and that was Joey Galloway. Yikes. It looked like I was right on the #3 WR spot for NE, but looks like I picked the wrong guy. I blame it on Bellichek. That said, its hard to justify a pickup unless your a Wes Welker owner because nobody in football has any idea of Welker’s status. Your on your own with this one.

Jason Avant (WR) - DeSean Jackson is nicked up. Keep your eye on his injury status. If its not looking good, pick Avant up. He’ll most likely be the #1 guy in Philly and accrue the stats DeSean would get.

Brent Celek (TE) - if you don’t have a good TE option, go ahead and give Celek a shot. I’m not a big fan of him so only grab him if you are playing a guy like Kevin Boss or Visanthe Shiancoe (the latter of which I wouldn’t drop, he’ll turn it around).

Justin Forsett (RB) – I own Julius Jones in just about every league I’m in. He slipped way too low for a full RB role. Forsett scares me a little. He looked good and he may play a bigger factor. If you have Jones, you may want to handcuff if you need to secure a RB situation. Edge is not the guy. This guy is probably more of a wait and see. If Hasselback misses an extended amount of time, chances are neither of them are relevant. Keep an eye on him.

Stay away from Malcolm Kelly, Brandon Stokley, Sims-Walker, Louis Murphy, WRs in Cincy (Chris Henry and Andre Caldwell)

Thats what I got for you. Hope you’ll be able to use some of the info.

Fantazzle Fantasy Football Games

Play fantasy football week to week at Fantazzle Fantasy Football. Games start on Sunday and cash prizes are awarded on Tuesday. No season long commitment. Use your fantasy football knowledge to win cash! Fantazzle is currently offering free fantasy football games with the chance to win cash prizes.

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If you missed the NFC NFL Football Predictions, take a look. This post is for the AFC Conference. I’ll try to stick with things that are not apparent and you haven’t heard over and over again. I hope it will provide you all with additional insight, albeit a little late, but it should be a good read and we’ll take a look at the end of the year and see how accurate the predictions were.

NOTE – All of the below was predicted prior to Week 1 and no results from Week 1 were used to create the predictions.

AFC East

New England was 11-5 w/out Tom Brady last year. He’s back this year. No reason to believe the Pats don’t win the division this year.

The Miami Dolphins are going to be very disappointing this year. Last year was as overachieving as you can get. Not only is the Wild Cat one year old, but there is no way Miami repeats their +/- turnover ratio. Miami got 30 INT/Fumble recoveries and gave up the ball 13 times for a +17. If you don’t know that is REALLL good. I give credit to Miami for accomplishing this, but I also think it’s going to even out this year. In addition, 7 out of 11 wins last year were by a TD or less. Throw that on top of going from one of the easiest schedule in 2008 to one of the hardest, and the Dolphins are in for a rude awakening.

The New York Jets are an intriguing team and I see them making some waves in 2009. Rex Ryan and the ex-Ravens he brought with him are going to really upgrade the defense. Put that next to one of the best offensive lines and running games in 2008 and you have the makings of a playoff team. Mark Sanchez will be the wild card, but we’re looking at a Baltimore type team and they have never needed a QB. The Jets will compete for a wild card spot and be a tough team to beat in 2009.

I don’t see the Buffalo Bills doing too much this year. I don’t think they will stink, but they won’t be a contender. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bills finish above the Dolphins.

AFC East Division Winner – New England Patriots

1. New England Patriots

2. New York Jets

3. Miami Dolphins

4. Buffalo Bills

Fantasy Football Impact

• I would keep an eye on Joey Galloway. We all talk about handcuffing your RBs, but never WRs. It doesn’t work the same way, but I don’t think there is a bigger ‘handcuff’ WR in the league than Galloway.
• I loved Thomas Jones last year. I’m sure he was a big help with the award Fantazzle won last year as the top fantasy football player ranking site. Fantazzle had him in the top 10 (he finished 5th) where he was mostly being ranked around ~20th. This year, I’m not real high on T Jones. Leon Washington has much more potential.

AFC North

You got two really good teams and you got two really bad teams. Ok, Cincy won’t be that bad, but they aren’t going to be relevant come December when everyone is talking about wild card spots. Cincy will be improved with Carson Palmer back and a defense that didn’t look half bad at times last year, but they are irrelevant with the top dawgs in the division (dawgs will be my closest reference to Cleveland).

DISCLAIMER!!!! I am a Ravens fan. I feel I’m impartial, but maybe that is impartial (whoa…thats deep!).

The Steelers return all but two guys from last year. So, easy repeat right? I don’t think so. In my NFC prediction post, I talked about how some teams did not address their main concerns. The Steelers are one of those teams. Their biggest weakness (and maybe their only weakness) is their offensive line. So during the off season they get a 3rd round Guard and a 7th round Center to address their weakness. Man…talk about rolling the dice. Their rushing attack will not improve and how is Big Ben going to stay healthy? I’m rolling the dice as well and saying that Big Ben goes down and so do the Steelers.

So that leaves the Ravens as the 2009 AFC North division winner. Its hard to see the Ravens not being better than the 11-5 record of last year. One year of experience under Flacco’s belt along with a young and improving O line. Sure they lost Rex Ryan and Bart Scott among a couple of defensive guys, but everyone needs to understand this happens every couple of years in Baltimore. Marvin Lewis and Mike Nolan most notably. Same thing at linebacker. The Ravens D won’t miss a beat.

AFC North Division Winners – Baltimore Ravens

1. Baltimore Ravens

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (Wild card)

3. Cincinnati Bengals

4. Cleveland Browns

Fantasy Football Impact

• Ray Rice is the RB you want in Baltimore. Le’Ron McClain will not be a fantasy factor this year since he’ll be put back into his fullback role. McGahee is worth owning if you have a roster spot, but unless things change he won’t be useful in fantasy leagues.
• Willie Parker won’t make it through the whole year given the O line issues and he’s fragile already. Mendenhall is a must have handcuff and if you can snatch him before Fast Willie owners, you da man.
• Same goes for Jamal Lewis. He is less of an injury concern, but I can see James Davis jumping in as the #1 half way through the year. From what I understand, Jerome Harrison will not be the primary and he will only be used as a third down back. Try to stash him if you can.
• Chad Ochocinco is underrated this year. With Carson back, there is no reason that 85 won’t return as a fantasy force.

AFC South

Like the NFC South, this is a tough division to call (its pretty funny how the AFC and NFC divisions mirror each other except for the East). Any one of these teams could win the division.

The Houston Texans are always a trendy pick. I like them, but they are in the wrong division. Houston will continue to hover around a .500 mark.

The Jacksonville Jags had a major fall off last year. A lot of it was due to injuries to the O and D line. They should improve with the guys back, but I doubt they’ll be competing for a playoff spot.

Tennessee had the best regular season record in 2008 and then exited early after a playoff loss to Baltimore. They blew a major chance last year because all the key pieces were in place. This year they’ll have a tougher go at it with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. He is a game changer. He is one of those guys that, when healthy and more importantly motivated, can single handedly stop a team’s rushing attack and put pressure on the passing game. He’ll be missed in Tennessee.

Indy is the clear favorite by most prognosticators for 2009. I’m not one of them. While I see Haynesworth making the Titans a weaker team, I still see them as being the AFC South winner. Indy has too many concerns on defense. It looks like Bob Sanders is going to miss an extended amount of time and that will hurt the Colts in an area that it can’t afford to have issues with. I’m also worried about the #2 WR in Indy. Anthony Gonzalez will not be what Reggie Wayne was 2 years ago. The Colts offense will still be stellar, but it will be less explosive without a star #2.

AFC South Division Winner – Tennessee Titans

1. Tennessee Titans

2. Indianapolis Colts (Wild card)

3. Houston Texans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Fantasy Impact

• Anthony Gonzalez will be a high end #3 WR, not a #2. Any #2 in Indy will be fantasy relevant, but watching Gonzalez last year, he didn’t look like he had the skills that will make him a fantasy star. Don’t expect him to play like Reggie Wayne did several years ago.
• Chris Johnson is not only a top fantasy running back, but also one of the less riskier picks in 2009. Its hard to imagine CJ having a bad year given the Titans game plan. He also has no NFL injury concerns so I like him as a reliable pick over more riskier picks like Steven Jackson or LT.
• In PPR leagues, Maurice Jones Drew is the #1 fantasy running back.
• Matt Schaub is the best fantasy football quarterback backup in the league. He’s really hard to trust as your #1 fantasy QB, but he’s a helluva backup. That way you don’t have to depend on him and if he stays healthy he could challenge your #1 for weekly starts.

AFC West

I’d be real surprised if this is not a one horse race. Its really hard to envision any team, but the San Diego Chargers to compete for the division.

The Denver Broncos are a mess. I can’t stress that enough and I don’t think I have to mention it. We all hear the stories every day.

The Kansas City Chiefs are right behind the Broncos. They just don’t have the talent.

The Oakland Raiders? Sorry to keep repeating myself, but see KC and Denver. I do however see Oakland improving. They have one of the best pass D’s in the league already. Its really a shame that they crapped the bed in the draft. If they could have improved their run D, they would have a really intriguing team and the key elements in place for a run in a weak division. Why? Because we all know that a solid D and solid run game (which they have) are the most successful strategies for a playoff run.

The Chargers win by default. San Diego seems to always underperform. Every year for the past ~5, they are Super Bowl picks. And every year they find ways to lose games. They barely made the playoffs last year so I don’t have a lot of faith in San Diego. I will say this, injuries played a large part of their issues last year. Merriman was out and Cromartie was absolutely horrible last year, but I guess that was because of an injury (well, why the heck did they let him play then? they really didnt have a better option?). They are both healthy this year and top draft pick, Larry English, will make them even better.

AFC West Division Winner – San Diego Chargers

1. San Diego Chargers

2. Oakland Raiders

3. Kansas City Chiefs

4. Denver Broncos

Fantasy Football Impact

• The San Diego Chargers Defense/Special Team was a major disappointment last year. This year, the Chargers will return to the top of D/ST with the return of Merriman and Cromartie at 100%.
• This is not really a fantasy football player for your team, but a word of advice. The Raiders CB, Nnamdi Asomugha, is the best cornerback in the NFL. Keep that in mind when your #1 WR plays against the Raiders. I’m benching just about anybody. I’m also looking at the #2 WR and starting him.
• Dwayne Bowe is a clear Tier 2 WR. Some people are worried about Bowe being a major fantasy WR. Don’t. Him along with Roddy White will prove this year that they are top #1 WRs for any fantasy team.
• Without Jay Cutler, Tony Scheffler is no longer a fantasy starter. Scheffler was becoming a TE start last year, but he won’t be this year with his best bud Cutler traded to the Bears.
• Zach Miller is an enigma for me. Last year he was the ~10th best fantasy TE, but the 6th best in yards. He only had 1 TD. Is this an issue with the Raiders offense (and red zone strategy) or was it happenstance that could be corrected this year? I don’t feel confident answering this, but I would definitely keep my eye on Z Miller and put him on your bench if you can spare a spot. I would not trust him as a weekly start yet.

AFC Conference Championship – Baltimore Ravens vs. Tennessee Titans

AFC Champion – Baltimore Ravens

Super Bowl Matchup – Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings

Super Bowl Champion – Minnesota Vikings

(Disclaimer – As mentioned above, I’m a Ravens fan. So am I being a homer? Its possible, but I believe they have the team this year that will return them to the Super Bowl.)

I wish you all the best for the 2009 Fantasy Football Season!

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Ok, its late.  This was all analyzed before last Sunday, but I guess there’s no reason for you to take my word for it. In any case, here it is. Give it a glance over and I’ll recap how accurate it was at the end of the season.

In this post, I’m going to shy away a bit from fantasy football and make some predictions for NFL football in general.  Don’t get me wrong, football predictions are VERY relevant to fantasy football. More than I believe people realize. When I do my research before the season and during the season, I spend a lot of time getting my thoughts together for teams first and then fantasy football. I think this is the best way to go about it and I credit it for Fantazzle being the top fantasy football ranking site in 2008.

So here goes for the 2009 NFL football season.

NFC East

Take your pick. I believe putting time into research and analysis can really give you insight to make justified predictions. I also believe there are instances where it doesn’t matter how much time you put into it or what computer algorithm you build, its just not gonna help. The NFC East is a perfect example of this. Hell, I even give the Redskins a shot at the division (Haynesworth is not a game changer, he’s a team changer). Lucky bounces and MOST IMPORTANTLY injuries will determine the winner. Its going to be so close that a key injury is even more important to the teams in this division than any other division. Brandon Jacobs goes down, NYG has got major issues with questions already at WR and no mas Derrick Ward. Donovan McNabb goes down (whoops! like I said I had this written before Week1), Philly has to depend on Kolb or Vick. And so forth.

I’m going with the Dallas Cowboys to win the division. They have had their fair share of key injuries the past year, but most of them were not recurring type issues that the aforementioned have. Plus, they got that new stadium and the pressure is off of them last year. Super Bowl contenders a year ago haven’t been mentioned at all this year and besides the TO loss (which makes them better in my opinion), they aren’t that different of a team.

NFC East Division Winner – Dallas Cowboys

1. Dallas Cowboys

2. New York Giants (Wild Card)

3. Philadelphia Eagles (Wild Card)

4. Washington Redskins

NFC East Fantasy Impact

• Tony Romo slipped wayyyyy too low in rankings. He was a complete steal this year as a Tier 2 QB that was drafted like a Tier 3.
• I love the Redskins Defense/Special Teams as a great team to have for a Bye week replacement, situational matchups, and upside to be a weekly start if Haynesworth has the impact I believe he will.
• The New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles WRs are not very appealing. None of them, including DeSean Jackson. The reason being is that in Philly they have strong talent everywhere and that will spread the ball too much. In New York, the same thing will happen and no one knows for certain who will step up. I think it will create a very sporadic situation each week. DeSean Jackson wasn’t extremely consistent week to week last year and improved talent all around him may cause more of this (if your team award punt return TDs for players, it makes him more attractive). In New York, I see the ball being spread as well and that will cause a lot of week to week inconsistency for the WRs. 2pts one week and 15pts the next. It will be a guessing game. IF someone does step up, congrats for guessing right (I hope its Steve Smith, I got him in a few leagues, but full disclosure, it was a complete guess when I clicked his name over Hixon).

NFC North

I found this pick pretty easy. Minnesota Vikings. I don’t see a strong arguement for any other team.

The Chicago Bears which is known for their defense is not as strong as public perception. Don’t get me wrong, they are good, but apologies to Bears fans, I think they are overrated. They can get beat pretty easily through the air. Cutler will make it exciting for this team though. Just as the Bears D is overrated, the Bears O is being overlooked and is underrated.

Detroit. There, I mentioned them.

Green Bay has talent and they won’t do bad. I doubt they’ll fall apart like they did last year and they will compete for a wild card spot. The Packers big weakness last year was their run D which they focused on in the off season and it should be much improved. Their pass D is one of the best in the game at making plays.

All of that being said, this is finally the year for Minnesota. They will win the division and they will be a Super Bowl contender. Their run D is Top 3 in the league and the Williams court ruling was major for them. They also got EJ Henderson back which I think has been overlooked. A strong team already, his return will make them elite. Their pass D has always been an issue, but a part of that is because you can’t run against them so its hard to figure out how bad, average or good they are. On offense, well their O line and Adrian Peterson are the best in the game. The addition of Favre is the wild card. If they start out well, especially Favre, the locker room will forget about their individual opinions on how everything was handled. I’m not sure it was the right decision, but I also think it will not be as big a factor as the media has portrayed. The Vikings will win their division and have a shot at making and winning the 2009-2010 Super Bowl.

NFC North Division Winner – Minnesota Vikings

1. Minnesota Vikings

2. Green Bay Packers

3. Chicago Bears

4. Detroit Lions

NFC North Fantasy Impact

• Greg Olsen is going to have a big year. There aren’t many options for Cutler at WR, he has been reported to have a Romo/Witten off the field relationship with Olsen (just like he did with Scheffler in Denver), and Olsen is a great talent. I got him as a top 5 TE this year.
• I think Aaron Rodgers is good, but I think he is overrated. I haven’t seen one ranking this year with him lower than a top QB. I think he could be, but I’m not as confident as everyone else is with his ranking. Is he that good? I want to see another year before I crown him an elite fantasy football quarterback.
• Just like the Redskins Defense/Special Teams, I’m liking the GB Def/ST in the same role. A great Bye week and situational replacement with the upside of being an every week start.
• Calvin Johnson is good. If you have ever seen him play and his build, he is a picturesque WR. Detroit will be playing from behind every week and that always bode well for WRs. Hopefully Stafford will be good enough in his rookie year to get him the ball.
• I can’t provide any insight on the Vikings that you don’t already know. AP is the undisputed #1 (unless you play in a PPR league) and their Def/ST makes your life easy each week as a must start.

NFC South

This is a pretty hard division to predict. Besides Tampa Bay, any of these teams could win the division. Because it is such a close contest, I made my deciding factor on the last place to first place pattern that has been incredibly consistent for six years. Six years!!!! Thats unbelievable. Ok, last year the pattern didn’t exactly continue. The Atlanta Falcons were 1 second away from the trend, but Carolina converted a FG to win the game. The Falcons did receive a wildcard spot so close enough for me.

Besides I really like the Saints. Not sure if anything needs to be said about their offense. Their defense is the question and I believe it will be much better this year. Has anyone else noticed that there were a lot of teams this offseason where you shake your head and don’t understand why they didn’t address their key team problems? The Ravens didn’t draft or acquire a WR (besides Kelley Washington…), the Broncos drafted a RB in the first round, the Raiders spent their first pick on a questionable WR choice, etc. Some teams did very well focusing on their deficiencies and the Saints were one of them. Darren Sharper will prove to be one of the best off season acquisitions in 2009. Not just for his talent, but for the experience and leadership he can bring to a young secondary. Bringing in Gregg Williams as the D Coordinator will prove to be huge. Jabari Greer and Paul Spicer were brought in. And to cap off the brilliant off season moves, the Saints spent 3 of their 4 draft picks (yes, they only had 4 picks) on defensive players that should make an immediate impact. Hats off to the Saints and their team management for improving their team and showing a true commitment to win. It will pay off for them as the New Orleans Saints win the NFC South division.

Tampa Bay will be bad. Carolina will be competitive and should compete for a wildcard spot behind their strong running game. The Falcons will disappoint. They have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL this year and I believe they weren’t as good as their record was last year. They are a good team and they should be strong this year and future years, but I feel that everything went their way in 2008 and that will be tough to repeat.

NFC South Division Winner – New Orleans Saints

1. New Orleans Saints

2. Carolina Panthers

3. Atlanta Falcons

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Football Impact

• Marques Colston will return to former glory after a bad 2008. He’s good and is on the perfect team to put up incredible fantasy stats. (Side Note – after watching Week 1, I’m a bit worried about this prediction. Sure its only one week, but the amount they spread the ball worries me. I’m sticking with the prediction, but I’m concerned that the Saints are turning into a ‘wide receiver by committee’ team that will make it hard for fantasy owners each week when deciding or not to start Colston, Henderson, Moore and even Meachem.)
• Michael Clayton has some real potential to become fantasy relevant again. If Antonio Bryant is slowed from off season surgery, TB will need someone to throw to and Clayton is the obvious candidate. He’ll put up Joey Galloway type numbers which will make him a low end #2 WR.
• I’m staying away from Tony Gonzalez. I really think the situation is too unpredictable for him. He could be anywhere from the #1 TE in fantasy football to the 15th best. Too risky for me.
• DeAngelo Williams is a VERY risky top 5 RB. I think he’ll finish more at the bottom of the top 10. His production came in the second half and was because of several monster games. Take away those monster games and he’s not even on radars this year. Plus out of all the RBs being tossed around as fantasy’s best, he is the only one in a split carry situation. I don’t see how he can be regarded as one of the top 5 when he only carries the ball 60% of the time.

NFC West

This is a tricky division. I think its pretty well known that the NFC and AFC West are the worst divisions in football. While the AFC West has a standout team (San Diego), the NFC West really doesn’t.

Lets get the obvious out of the way. The St. Louis Rams will not be good. They’ll be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Ok, well thats about it for the obvious. You may think that San Fran would be listed here as well. I don’t think so. I think they have a real shot at winning the division. I believe Mike Singletary has got them playing inspired football and they have the makings of a competitive team. I don’t believe they would have much division hopes if they were in a non West division, but they are so they do. Patrick Willis is one of the best LBs in the game. The rest of the defense is getting better and Singletary is a great coach to get the most out of them. The offense has a great run offense, but has a shaky passing offense. I think Shaun Hill will be ok back there and between Isaac Bruce, Josh Morgan, Jason Hill and Brandon Jones they’ll be ok at WR as well. The 49ers will surprise people this year….but they will not win the division (hope that wasn’t a tease).

The Cardinals? I can’t remember a team being talked about less the year after a Super Bowl appearance (maybe the ’04 Raiders?). That below the radar situation usually motivates a team and can take their opponents by surprise. OR it could mean they just aren’t very good and there is something to the Super Bowl curse thing. I’m going with the latter. Since 2000, the losing team in the Super Bowl has only had a winning record 6 out of 8 times (and one of those was NE last year who didn’t make the playoffs). That is pretty eye opening. Not only did they not return to the playoffs, but had LOSING RECORDS!!! I got AZ finishing 3rd in the division.

So, that leaves the Seattle Seahawks who I believe will easily win the NFC West. In fact the Seahawks are my choice for the biggest surprise team in 2009. Maybe I’m reading the wrong articles, but no one sees Seattle as a contender this year. Sure, there are selections for them to win the NFC West, but there is little respect. I guess that’s because they were so bad last year. But everyone should know that the NFL can change so much year to year that this is really irrelevant. Last year about this time, Hasselback was out, the losses at the O line were major, the defense was projected to be one of the worst, O line and key D injuries, and the injury circus at WR. It was Twilight Zone’sque. Let me recap real quick because it was nothing like I have ever seen in the NFL. Bobby Engram and Obamanu down during training camp. Deion Branch was out from the prior season. Nate Burleson tore ligaments in Week 1. Logan Payne done in Week 2. And then Koren Robinson goes down after he is signed. Most teams only have ~6 WRs on their 53 man roster. This is 6 right here. It was comical and freaky. Well, a year has changed a lot. Hasselback is back, TJ Housh was signed, Burleson and Branch are healthy (I think Branch is healthy….that guy is the most injured person in professional football. Agree? Disagree?), and the Seahawks defense looks better with injury returns and Aaron Curry drafted in the first round. Seattle Seahawks win the NFC West Division.

NFC West Division Winner – Seattle Seahawks

1. Seattle Seahawks

2. San Fran 49ers

3. Arizona Cardinals

4. St Louis Rams

Fantasy Football Impact

• Why the heck is everyone so high on Steven Jackson? Its really hard for me to trust him as a top 5 RB. Sure if everything goes according to plan, then he’ll be pretty good, but thats hard to count on. The team is bad…real bad. I’m not drafting a guy that is getting top 5 attention with so many question marks.
• Laurent Robinson will be fantasy relevant. He is looking like the #1 WR in St. Louis. Avery is a much smaller receiver and his injury will set him back. I see Robinson being a candidate to be a #3 WR, flex starter, or at a minimum a Bye week replacement.
• Vernon Davis is worth a roster spot if you can spare one. If you like to carry two TEs on your team, chances are the second one is not a sure thing. V Davis has some upside and he could finally put up the numbers everyone has expected from him. Singletary seems to have a personal liking to pressing this guy. You can tell from the banishment last year and promoting Davis to a team captain this year. Singletary wouldn’t take the time to do that if he didn’t believe in Vernon’s potential. He’s got a lot of upside and could be a nice surprise.
• Not much to say about Arizona that is already published about them. No particular insight with that team.
• I love Nate Burleson this year. I have always thought he was a talented receiver and he’s in a good spot to become a very consistent #2 fantasy football wide receiver. He could put up bigger numbers than TJ.
• I love John Carlson just as much. Hasselback has always loved to throw to his TEs and Carlson is the best one he has ever had.
• Julius Jones is one of the most underrated players in fantasy football. I ranked Julius Jones 16th overall for running backs and have caught some flak about that. We’ll see. He’s in a great spot to be a big time surprise.

NFC Conference Championship - Dallas Cowboys vs Minnesota Vikings

NFC Champion - Minnesota Vikings

AFC Conference Predictions coming next.

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Fantazzle Fantasy Football Games – 2009 Running Back Rankings

Ranking Credibility
In 2008, Fantazzle Fantasy Sports Games, was the #1 preseason fantasy football ranking site by the FSTA and Fantasy Football Librarian besting over 20 fantasy sites, including household names and leaders in sports and fantasy football.

Fantasy Football Running Backs – Overall
Running back strategy has shifted. You have heard it before and I’ll repeat: if you don’t have one of the first 4 overall picks, you’re taking a chance at this position. In the first round you want a sure thing and running backs just don’t offer that anymore. Split time, injury concerns, inconsistency, you name it. If I’m in the bottom half of the draft order, I’m picking WRs with my first two picks and stacking up on RBs with upside starting in round 3 through 6 (depending on how the draft goes, ONE of those picks may be for a QB or WR if certain guys fall to you).

Running back is by far the hardest position to rank. As of August 28th, there are 7 to 8 teams that haven’t given a clear position of who the starter is or how much time the named starter will play. For all other positions, you know who is starting and in most cases, you know these guys will play 90-100% of snaps. At running back, there is no guarantee that someone like Addai or Barber or even DeAngelo will play as much as expected. Thats why you can’t count on these guys and should stockpile in later rounds. You want as much a sure thing as possible in the first couple rounds.

Fantasy Football Running Backs Scoring
Standard. 6pts TD; 1pt every 10 yards; -2pts fumble (no points for receptions)

RUNNING BACKS TIER 1
1 Adrian Peterson — #1 in non-PPR leagues.
2 Matt Forte — #1 in PPR leagues.
3 Maurice Jones Drew
4 Michael Turner

RUNNING BACKS TIER 2
5 LaDainian Tomlinson
6 DeAngelo Williams — Hard schedule; Overrated.
7 Frank Gore
8 Chris Johnson
9 Brandon Jacobs — If he plays all 16 games, he can be ~#5.
10 Marion Barber — F Jones will help, rather than hurt ranking.
11 Clinton Portis

RUNNING BACKS TIER 3
12 Brian Westbrook — Really hard to rank given his injury history. I’m not drafting.
13 Steven Jackson — See BW…only he plays for a much worse team. I’m not drafting.

RUNNING BACKS TIER 4
14 Kevin Smith — No RBBC here. Big potential.
15 Steve Slaton
16 Julius Jones — Value Pick.
17 Ryan Grant
18 Ronnie Brown
19 Pierre Thomas
20 Larry Johnson — High-risk, high-reward
21 Derrick Ward — Value Pick.
22 Darren McFadden

RUNNING BACKS TIER 5
23 Marshawn Lynch — Top 15 if no suspension.
24 Thomas Jones — I’m staying away.
25 Joseph Addai
26 Jonathan Stewart
27 Ray Rice
28 Cedric Benson
29 Willie Parker
30 Knowshon Moreno — Who knows….
31 Reggie Bush — Always a disappointment.
32 Chris ‘Beanie’ Wells

RUNNING BACKS TIER 6
33 Willis McGahee
34 Felix Jones
35 James Davis
36 Michael Bush
37 Rashard Mendenhall
38 LenDale White
39 Donald Brown
40 LeShon McCoy — Major upside
41 Ahmad Bradshaw
42 Kevin Faulk — Not drafting any NE RBs.
43 Tim Hightower
44 Earnest Graham — I think D. Ward is going to produce.
45 Jamal Lewis — Not drafting even if its round 16
46 Fred Jackson
47 Correll Buckhalter
48 Darren Sproles
49 Glen Coffee
50 Shonn Greene — Helluva keeper league pick.

Fantasy Football Running Backs – Conclusion
The tiers are incredibly important. If you don’t have a top 4 pick, then stay away from RB. Look at Tier 2. How many of those guys do you feel 99% confident on? Tier 3, do you feel 50% confident they’ll be healthy? There are no sure things in Tier 4 or 5, but if you grab 3 or 4 of these guys and 1 or 2 Tier 6 (and free agent pickups), your bound to get two RBs you start week to week. Don’t risk your top picks with guys you can’t fully feel confident on. Go for a guy you can count on in another position.

Good luck to you all! QB and TE coming Sunday. WR shortly after.

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Hi everyone,
We have gotten some requests for Fantazzle’s fantasy football player rankings for 2009. Well we wanted to tell you, we are working on them and should have our first version up in the next couple of weeks so stay tuned.
Hot off of Fantazzle’s 2008 preseason fantasy football ranking award, we hope to have a respectable standing for 2009, if not a repeat. We’ll be taking this very seriously and look to stregthen Fantazzle credibility within the industry.
Stay tuned and make sure to check back at Fantazzle Fantasy Football home page along with this fantasy sports blog.
Ryan
Fantazzle Fantasy Sports Games

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