Week 5 FantaPlays
It’s Week 5 so that means by now you should have pretty good read on which players will put up good numbers this year and which ones won’t (but as always, it doesn’t mean I know anything!)
Keeping in mind that the season’s starting to settle, your strategy can change from one in which you only start the big dogs each week to one that looks to exploit matchup advantages… let’s get started:
FantaPlay Quarterbacks:
There are usually about four or five quarterbacks to choose from in any given week, but this week is a little different. As it stands right now, the only absolute MUST start is Tony Romo. And when I say he’s an absolute MUST I mean that even if everyone else you’re playing has him in their lineups, you need him too. He’s going to have a monster day at home against Cincinnati and the losers in your Pick ‘Em games will be people who don’t have his 86,000 points in their lineup this week. Even with all the Terrell Owens distractions Romo’s a must start…
Speaking of old T.O., how predictable was this? Who didn’t see this coming? Owens pretended for the past two years to be non-insane but once he signed that contract in June, look what happened! Right back to crazy-time… complaining about the coaching, the quarterbacking, the amount of plays he gets, etc, etc, etc.
Football fans have witnessed Owens’s insanity for so long that I think we tend to shrug it off but honestly, it’s like his brain is mis-wired, I’m having a hard time wrapping my head around it. Think about this… what kind of solution, if you were Wade Phillips or Jerry Jones, could you possibly come up with to make Owens happy? He was involved in 22 plays this past week and complained about how much he was involved in the offense. Marion Barber and Jason Witten weren’t involved in 22 plays… COMBINED!!!
Owens said Jeff Garcia was gay when he didn’t get thrown enough passes in San Francisco (where, at one point he set the NFL record with a 22-catch game). Then he went to Philly and McNabb threw to him 30 times a game but still that wasn’t enough. Owens responded by doing everything short of taking a dump in McNabb’s helmet before the games then got released and went to Texas. Now he’s in Dallas complaining that throwing him passes on only every other play is just too little! I can’t see any possible or reasonable solution to this, can you? The only thing that might work is if Jerry Jones abandsons plans to build the new stadium and instead uses the saved billions to clone Owens and let T.O. throw passes to himself. He’d probably still complain about the quarterbacking, but at least it would be fun to see him argue with himself. Anyway, like I said, insane. Moving on…
Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler are still solid starts even though both came back to earth a little bit last week. Cutler’s got Tampa’s resurgent defense at home but has shown enough talent that it doesn’t matter who he’s playing. As for Rivers, he’s facing Miami’s 26th ranked pass defense, and with the San Diego running game looking weak it’s a good time to bet on Rivers having a big game. Minnesota’s defense is stout against the run, but only average against the pass, so Brees is a good choice here as well. But here are your two FantaPlays to mix in with the other four: Jake Delhomme and Trent Edwards. Yes I’m still high on Edwards but he looks like the real deal and he’s playing against Arizona, a team that just gave up 14td’s and 93 points to an average Jets offense led by a 51-year-old quarterback (note: not all numbers checked for accuracy). Edwards has thrown for 200 yards and one TD in every game this year. That’s consistency you can count on.
Jake Delhomme’s surgically repaired arm looks stronger than it did pre-surgery. Steve Smith and Muhshin Muhammad are flying all over the field and they’ve got a nice running game to complement it all. They’re playing against a KC team that you can expect to have a letdown on the road after laying it all out at home last week to get their first win against their hated Bronco rivals.
Quarterbacks to stay away from:
Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner. Don’t let the Texans defense fool you. They can stop the pass, they just can’t stop the run. Manning has also had a historically tougher time against the Texans despite their status as a 2002 expansion team. As for Warner, he torched the Jets for nearly 500 yards but won’t have nearly that kind of success against a varsity defense (and the Bills are most certainly a varsity defense).
FantaPlay Runningbacks:
As opposed to the limited choices among the quarterbacks there’s a wealth of runningbacks with good matchups. Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch should be in everyone’s lineup this week, but the rest of the field is filled with great matchups too. Marion Barber vs. an awful Cincinnati run defense. Joseph Addai vs. an awful Houston run defense. Michael Turner vs. an awful Green Bay run defense. Earnest Graham vs. an awful Denver run defense. It’s a smorgasbord of good runningbacks agaisnt terrible run defenses!!! But perhaps the best choice among them all is Matt Forte vs. the worst run defense in the league (Detroit).
Runningbacks to stay away from:
It’s hard to say this but don’t expect much from LaDainian Tomlinson this week. His toe injury makes him look slow and if it weren’t for a stat-padding, 40-yard touchdown run at the end of the game last week every NFL Fantasy site in the world would have led off this week with the, “What’s wrong with LaDainian?” story. The Miami run defense ain’t half bad either. You should also be wary of Ronnie Brown as well. His monster performance against the Patriots a few weeks back came on five plays all run out of the “trick” single-wing formation. Take away those four plays and Brown has 40 yards and no touchdowns. Think the Chargers will be prepared to see the single wing? Probably, right? Unless of course Norv Turner’s as bad a coach as we all think he is. Chris Johnson and LenDale White won’t find any room to run against an absolutely sick Ravens Defense (Ray Lewis didn’t just separate Rashard Mendenhall’s shoulder on a clean tackle last week, he BROKE it). Start those two only if you want to lose. Ummm… don’t expect anything out of Willis McGahee or the Ravens runners against a tough Titans defense either.
FantaPlay Wide Receivers:
Santana Moss, Brandon Marshall and Reggie Wayne should be in everyone’s lineup. Until they prove otherwise, they’re pretty much must-starts no matter who they’re playing. Tough pass defense or not, these three get their catches and yards. But here are the players you need to chose to accompany those three: Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith and Andre Johnson. I know I picked Andre Johnson last week, and I know he disappointed once again, but he’s due. Trust me, he’s due. Steve Smith has proven he’s back to his 2005-06 form and is terrorizing NFL defenses. Calvin Johnson is on the cusp of joining the elite group of receivers who get yards and touchdowns no matter the opponent.
Wide Receivers to stay away from:
Until Randy Moss has a breakout game, stay away. His situation looks ripe for a typical shutdown season by Moss and the longer he goes without getting involved the offense, the worse it will get. Terrell Owens is also a tough play this week… there’s not any middle ground for him this week vs. the Bengals. Tony Romo, Jerry Jones and Wade Philips will either try to assert their authority over Captain Lunatic by running the ball 40 times and never throwing it his way, or they’ll try to appease Owens by throwing it to him 70 times. So he’s good for either a two catch, 30-yard game, or 14 catch 200-yard, 3 TD game. It’s just not worth the risk when there are so many other good WR’s to choose from this week. Expect Larry Fitzgerald to get double coverage with Anquan Boldin out this weekm and Roy Williams is having his production destroyed by the supremely talented Johnson. Finally, don’t be cute and start thinking guys like Lance Moore or Kevin Walter are going to repeat last week’s performances.
